From
Commerce Signals and Transaction Proximity to Incrementality, Measurement and
Business Value
Retail media
has grown quickly over the last few years. For advertisers, the attraction is
easy to understand: retailers sit close to the transaction and have access to
signals that many other media environments simply do not have.
But the
landscape is becoming much broader.
Retailers are
building advertising businesses. Marketplaces have their own media ecosystems.
Delivery platforms can connect advertising with transaction behaviour. Travel
businesses have booking and destination data. Commerce audiences can
increasingly be activated beyond the original platform across other media
environments.
For a
performance marketer, that creates more possibilities, but also a very
practical problem:
Where should
the next advertising euro actually go?
That decision
cannot come from reach or ROAS alone. I want to understand the signal behind
the audience, where that consumer sits in the buying journey, how close the
media is to a transaction, what the partner adds to my existing media mix, how
sales are measured and, ultimately, whether the investment created additional
business.
That is the
lens I want to use throughout this article.
First, What
Do We Mean by Retail Media and Commerce Media?
The easiest way
to understand retail media is through a shopping example.
Imagine someone
visiting an online retailer and searching for running shoes.
Several brands
sell running shoes on that retailer. One of them pays for its product to appear
prominently within the search results.
That is a
classic retail media placement.
The retailer
has something extremely useful for advertising: it understands what people
search for, which products they view, what they add to their basket and,
importantly, what they eventually buy.
Retail media
can include much more than sponsored products:
Sponsored
Search | Product Listings | Onsite Display | Retailer Audiences | Offsite
Advertising | Video | CTV
depending on
the retailer and its advertising capabilities.
So what
changes with commerce media?
The same
principle can extend beyond traditional retailers.
1.
A
marketplace sees transactions.
2.
A
food-delivery platform sees ordering behaviour.
3.
A
travel platform sees destination searches and bookings.
4.
A
loyalty ecosystem can understand repeat purchasing.
5.
A
commerce platform may have detailed product and transaction information.
These
businesses can use those signals to create advertising opportunities.
So I think
about the progression roughly like this:
Retail
Environment → Commerce Data → Advertising Audience → Media Activation →
Transaction Measurement
Commerce media
broadens the number of businesses and environments capable of doing this.
That means
advertisers now have a growing number of partners competing for the same media
budget.
And that is
where the investment decision becomes interesting.
I Would
Start With the Business Problem
Imagine a
German fashion retailer has €500,000 available for incremental media
investment.
There are
several things the business might want from that money:
1.
Acquire
new customers
2.
Launch
a footwear collection
3.
Increase
sales in an underperforming category
4.
Support
Black Friday
5.
Grow
repeat purchases
6.
Enter
another European market
The media
strategy should look different depending on which problem we are solving.
For a new
product launch, I may need meaningful category reach.
For customer
acquisition, I care about identifying and converting genuinely new customers.
For an
established product with strong organic demand, incrementality becomes
particularly important because attributed sales could include customers who
would have purchased anyway.
So before
asking:
Which
commerce media network should I use?
I would ask:
What exactly
am I trying to change in the business?
That becomes
the anchor for everything that follows.
Where Does
the Partner Sit in the Customer Journey?
Customers
rarely experience advertising through one neat sequence.
Someone buying
a pair of €180 running shoes might see a video, encounter the brand on social,
search for reviews, compare models, visit a retailer, leave, search again and
eventually purchase.
Different media
environments participate at different points.
Discovery →
Research → Comparison → Product Evaluation → Purchase → Repeat Purchase
Commerce media
can potentially operate across several of these stages.
A sponsored
product may appear very close to purchase.
An offsite
video campaign using commerce audiences may reach the same consumer much
earlier.
That
distinction matters because I would not evaluate both placements using exactly
the same expectations.
A lower-funnel
placement might be judged heavily on conversion and incremental sales.
An
earlier-stage campaign might have a broader job within the media plan.
So one of my
first questions for any commerce media partner is:
What role
can this environment realistically play in the customer journey?
What Does
the Commerce Signal Actually Tell Me?
This is where I
would spend a lot of time.
Imagine three
media partners all offer an audience called:
“Running
Enthusiasts.”
That label
tells me very little.
a)
Partner
A may define the audience using people who read running content.
b)
Partner
B may include people who recently browsed running shoes.
c)
Partner
C may know that someone purchased running shoes twice during the last twelve
months and recently started browsing another pair.
These are very
different signals.
The same
applies across commerce media.
I want to
understand the actual behaviour underneath the audience:
Search
History → Browsing Behaviour → Category Interaction → Product Views → Basket
Activity → Purchase History → Purchase Frequency → Transaction Value → Loyalty
Behaviour
Recency matters
too.
Someone who
bought a washing machine yesterday probably has very different immediate value
to an appliance advertiser than someone currently researching one.
For me,
audience evaluation therefore starts with a simple question:
What does
this partner genuinely know about the consumer that is useful for this
campaign?
Transaction
Proximity Matters, but So Does Influence
Commerce media
gives us another useful dimension: how close the consumer is to buying.
Think about the
journey:
Browsing →
Category Search → Product View → Comparison → Basket → Purchase
A consumer with
a product already in their basket is obviously close to a transaction.
That makes the
media opportunity valuable.
But there is
another question I would ask:
How much
opportunity does the advertising still have to influence what happens?
Suppose someone
buys the same coffee brand every month.
They visit the
retailer, search for that exact brand, see a sponsored placement and purchase
it again.
The ad was
certainly close to the transaction.
But proximity
alone does not tell me whether the advertising created additional value.
Now imagine
someone browsing several competing coffee brands and categories without a fixed
preference.
The advertiser
may have greater opportunity to influence that decision.
So I would look
at:
Transaction
Proximity + Opportunity to Influence
rather than
treating proximity as a standalone measure of media quality.
Scale Needs
Context
Reach still
matters.
A brilliant
audience signal with almost no usable scale is unlikely to transform a large
advertiser's business.
But I also
would not choose a partner because it offers the biggest number on a media
plan.
Imagine:
|
Partner A |
Partner B |
|
|
Addressable Audience |
25M |
8M |
|
Category Relevance |
Medium |
High |
|
Purchase Signal |
Limited |
Strong |
|
Transaction Proximity |
Medium |
High |
|
Transaction Measurement |
Partial |
Strong |
25 million people sounds impressive.
Eight million
may represent the more commercially useful opportunity.
Or the opposite
could be true if the business objective requires substantial incremental reach.
The useful
comparison is therefore closer to:
Addressable
Scale × Relevance × Intent × Transaction Proximity × Measurement
And even that
needs to be interpreted against the campaign objective.
There is no
universal number that tells me which partner deserves the budget.
Onsite and
Offsite Create Different Opportunities
Commerce data
becomes even more interesting when it can be activated outside the original
shopping environment.
Onsite
The consumer is
already inside the retailer or commerce platform.
Advertising can
appear around:
Search →
Category Browsing → Product Pages → Recommendations → Checkout Journey
The proximity
to shopping behaviour can be extremely useful.
Offsite
The same
commerce signals may potentially be activated across environments such as:
Display |
Online Video | CTV | Social | Other Addressable Media
where the
partner supports those capabilities.
Now I can
potentially combine:
Commerce
Signal + Broader Media Reach
That is useful,
but it introduces another planning question.
If I already
reach these consumers through search, social, programmatic advertising or CTV,
how much additional value does commerce-powered offsite activation bring?
I would want to
understand:
Incremental
Reach → Audience Overlap → Frequency → Media Cost → Downstream Performance
Otherwise I
could end up paying several platforms to reach substantially the same people.
ROAS Is
Useful. I Still Want to Know What Was Incremental.
Suppose a
commerce media campaign reports:
€100,000
Spend → €600,000 Attributed Revenue → 6x ROAS
I absolutely
want to know that.
But I would not
stop there.
Imagine
€350,000 of those purchases came from loyal customers who buy the same products
regularly.
Some may have
purchased regardless of the campaign.
The question
then becomes:
How much
additional business did the €100,000 actually create?
That is why I
separate two concepts.
Attribution
Which sales
were associated with advertising according to the measurement rules?
Incrementality
What happened
because of the advertising compared with what would likely have happened
without it?
Those questions
can produce very different views of the same campaign.
A campaign can
have strong attributed ROAS and modest incremental impact.
Another
campaign may look less spectacular through last-touch reporting but generate
meaningful new demand.
For budget
allocation, I want both perspectives.
How Would I
Measure Incrementality?
There is no
single experiment that fits every advertiser or commerce media partner.
Depending on
scale, geography, platform capability and available data, I might consider:
Randomized
Holdouts | Geo Experiments | Matched Markets | Model-Based Counterfactuals |
Econometric Analysis
The methodology
matters.
If a partner
tells me a campaign generated €2 million in incremental sales, I want to
understand how the counterfactual was constructed.
a.
What
happened in the control population?
b.
Were
test and control groups comparable?
c.
How
long did the test run?
d.
Were
other campaigns running simultaneously?
e.
Could
customers move between test and control environments?
f.
Was
the analysis based on online sales only or total transactions?
Incrementality
is useful because it helps answer a difficult business question.
The quality of
the answer depends heavily on the quality of the test.
Closed-Loop
Measurement Gives Commerce Media an Important Advantage
One reason
commerce media attracts so much advertising investment is its potential
connection between advertising and transactions.
The loop can
look like:
Ad Exposure
→ Product Interaction → Purchase
For a retailer
with both online and physical stores, that could potentially become even more
valuable if the measurement environment can connect media exposure with
transactions across both.
But I would
still inspect the methodology.
I want to
understand:
Attribution
Window | Online vs Offline Coverage | New vs Existing Customers | Cross-Device
Matching | Product-Level Measurement | Returns and Cancellations |
Cross-Channel Exposure | Incrementality Methodology
Two platforms
can both report “ROAS” while measuring it differently.
Before
comparing them, I need to know what sits underneath the number.
Eventually,
I Need to Reach the Economics
Media metrics
help me operate campaigns.
Business
economics help me decide how much those campaigns deserve.
Consider this
hypothetical example:
€100,000
Media Spend → €600,000 Attributed Revenue → €250,000 Estimated Incremental
Revenue → €100,000 Incremental Gross Margin
Suddenly the 6x
attributed ROAS is only one part of the investment story.
Then I may need
to consider:
Customer
Acquisition Cost | New Customer Rate | Average Order Value | Gross Margin |
Promotional Discounts | Repeat Purchase Rate | Customer Lifetime Value
For a
performance marketer, the analysis gradually moves:
CPM / CPC →
Conversion Rate → Attributed Revenue → Incremental Revenue → Margin → Customer
Economics → Incremental Business Value
That is where
media planning becomes much more closely connected to commercial
decision-making.
My Commerce
Media Investment Framework
If I were
comparing several commerce media partners, I would put them through the same
framework.
|
Dimension |
What I Want to Understand |
|
Business Objective |
What outcome are we trying
to change? |
|
Customer Journey |
Where does this environment sit in the
decision process? |
|
Commerce Signal |
What behaviour does the
partner genuinely observe? |
|
Transaction Proximity |
How close is the consumer to
purchasing? |
|
Addressable Scale |
Is there enough relevant
reach to matter? |
|
Activation |
Where can the signal actually be used? |
|
Media Overlap |
What does it add to channels
already in the plan? |
|
Measurement |
Can exposure be connected reliably
with transactions? |
|
Incrementality |
What additional business did
the media create? |
|
Economics |
Does that incremental value justify
the investment? |
|
Scalability |
What happens when I increase
the budget? |
The value is in
using the dimensions together.
Strong signals
with limited scale may still have an important role.
Large scale
with weaker transaction visibility may solve a different problem.
Excellent
attributed ROAS with little incremental impact changes how I would value the
investment.
Each strength
needs context.
A
Hypothetical German Fashion Retailer
Let's make the
framework practical.
A German
multi-brand fashion retailer wants to increase new-customer footwear revenue.
It is
evaluating three hypothetical commerce media opportunities.
Partner A:
Large Marketplace
Large
addressable audience, significant product-search activity and substantial
scale.
Potential role:
Discovery →
Product Comparison → Purchase
Partner B:
Fashion Commerce Platform
Smaller
audience but deeper fashion-specific browsing and purchasing behaviour.
Potential role:
Category
Intent → Product Consideration → Acquisition
Partner C:
Broader Transaction Network
Less
fashion-specific but strong transaction signals and broader offsite activation.
Potential role:
Commerce
Audience → Offsite Reach → Customer Acquisition
I would not
immediately rank A, B and C.
First, I would
test the job each partner could perform.
Then I would
evaluate:
New
Customers → Incremental Revenue → CAC → Margin → Audience Overlap → Marginal
Performance as Spend Increases
The outcome may
be that all three deserve investment for different reasons.
It may also be
that one adds very little to what the retailer already gets elsewhere.
That is exactly
what the testing needs to establish.
Building the
Portfolio
A large
advertiser could eventually have:
Search +
Social + Programmatic Advertising + CTV + Retail Media + Marketplace Media +
Delivery Media + Other Commerce Media
That creates
substantial opportunity.
It also creates
complexity.
More partners
can mean:
More Signals
| More Inventory | More Measurement
but also:
More
Audience Duplication | More Attribution Claims | More Platforms | More
Reporting | More Operational Work
So I would map
every commerce media investment against its role.
i.
Which
partner helps me discover new customers?
ii.
Which
one identifies strong category intent?
iii.
Which
sits closest to the transaction?
iv.
Which
gives me useful offsite activation?
v.
Which
provides the strongest measurement?
vi.
Which
produces incremental growth?
The portfolio
should have a reason for being a portfolio.
What Happens
When I Increase the Budget?
This is one of
the questions I care about most.
A network may
perform extremely well at €20,000 per month.
That does not
tell me what happens at:
€50,000 →
€100,000 → €250,000
As spend
increases, I may begin reaching less relevant audiences, the same consumers
more frequently, more expensive inventory, or demand that becomes increasingly
difficult to influence.
So I would
track marginal performance, not only blended performance.
If the first
€50,000 generates excellent incremental economics but the next €50,000 produces
substantially weaker returns, that should affect allocation.
The practical
budget question is therefore:
What does
the next euro produce?
So Where
Should the Next Advertising Euro Go?
As retail media
expands into a broader commerce media landscape, advertisers will have access
to more networks, more transaction signals and more ways to activate them.
My investment
process would remain fairly disciplined:
Define the
Business Objective
↓
Understand
the Customer Journey
↓
Interrogate
the Commerce Signal
↓
Assess
Transaction Proximity
↓
Evaluate
Relevant Scale
↓
Understand
Onsite and Offsite Activation
↓
Measure
Transactions
↓
Test
Incrementality
↓
Connect
Results With Commercial Economics
↓
Evaluate
Marginal Returns
Only then would
I decide how much more budget a partner deserves.
For me, that is
the real opportunity in commerce media.
It gives
performance marketers another powerful set of signals and media environments to
work with, while making the investment decision increasingly dependent on
something much closer to the business:
What
additional value did this advertising create, and what is the next advertising
euro likely to produce?
Closing
Thoughts
Retail media is
becoming a much bigger planning conversation than sponsored products and
placements inside retailer websites.
As commerce
media expands, advertisers can potentially work with richer shopping and
transaction signals across retailers, marketplaces, delivery platforms, travel
businesses and other commerce environments. Those signals can also travel
further through offsite activation, creating more ways to connect commerce data
with the wider paid media mix.
That also makes
budget allocation harder.
I would want to
know what sits behind an audience, how relevant that signal is to the business
objective, where the customer is in the buying journey, how close the media
sits to the transaction, what reach is genuinely incremental, and how reliably
advertising exposure can be connected with business outcomes.
And I would
keep coming back to incrementality.
A sale
attributed to advertising is valuable information. Understanding whether
advertising actually changed the outcome gives me a different level of
information for investment decisions.
The same
applies to scale. Strong performance at one level of spend does not
automatically tell me what happens with the next €50,000 or €100,000. Marginal
returns matter when deciding where additional budget should go.
Conclusion
The expansion
from retail media into commerce media gives performance marketers more signals,
more inventory, more activation possibilities and potentially much stronger
connections between media and transactions.
For me, the
useful way to evaluate that opportunity is:
Business
Objective → Customer Journey → Commerce Signal → Transaction Proximity →
Addressable Scale → Activation → Measurement → Incrementality → Economics →
Marginal Returns
The final
decision is then much simpler to frame:
What did
this media investment add to the business, and what is the next advertising
euro likely to produce?
That is the
question I would want commerce media planning to answer.

